Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Prediction markets currently estimate a one-in-four chance that Iran will publicly commit to ending all uranium enrichment by mid-2026, reflecting deep skepticism about near-term diplomatic breakthroughs despite ongoing international pressure.
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
A prediction market betting on proof that Jeffrey Epstein survived his 2019 jail death maintains a 4.2% probability through end-2026, reflecting the enduring skepticism about official accounts despite lack of credible evidence.
Iran leadership change by December 31?
A prediction market tracking potential leadership change in Iran currently prices the probability of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei ceasing to be the de facto leader by December 31 at 33.5%, reflecting significant uncertainty about regime stability amid internal and external pressures.
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Prediction markets price the probability of a Chinese military offensive against Taiwan by June 30, 2026, at 2%, reflecting widespread assessments that near-term invasion remains unlikely despite sustained cross-strait tensions and military modernization.
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Prediction markets currently assign a 53.5% probability to a US-Iran nuclear agreement by end-2026, reflecting deep uncertainty about diplomatic prospects under shifting American administrations and persistent tensions over uranium enrichment and sanctions.
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Prediction markets currently assess a 12.5% probability that Iran will publicly agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, reflecting deep skepticism about diplomatic breakthroughs on nuclear negotiations in the near term.
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Prediction markets are pricing a ceasefire extension between Israel and Hezbollah at 100%, reflecting strong confidence that the initial 10-day agreement announced April 16, 2026, will be formally extended within 10 days. The market's unanimous pricing suggests traders view continuation of the halt in hostilities as virtually assured.
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Prediction markets are pricing the likelihood of direct military engagement between China and Taiwan over the next 14 months at 8.5%, reflecting persistent geopolitical tensions tempered by historical restraint and economic interdependencies.
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Prediction markets are pricing an 11.5% probability that Iran will lose control of Kharg Island by June 30, 2026, reflecting the current geopolitical stability of the strategic Persian Gulf asset despite regional tensions.
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
A prediction market betting on whether the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting will occur in Pakistan currently shows 100% probability for some outcome, though the market structure suggests traders are distributing confidence across multiple potential venues including Pakistan, Oman, Iraq, and others through June 2026.
Iran Nuke before 2027?
A prediction market on whether Iran will possess a nuclear weapon by the end of 2026 is trading at 9.6% probability, reflecting trader skepticism about near-term weaponization despite ongoing nuclear program concerns. The low odds suggest markets expect continued international constraints and diplomatic mechanisms to prevent Iranian nuclear capability within the next two years.
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is assigned a 17.5% probability of winning the most seats in Berlin's September 2026 state elections, reflecting structural barriers to the party's expansion in the capital despite significant polling gains across eastern Germany.
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Prediction markets are assigning just a 5.5% probability to Reza Pahlavi visiting Iran by June 30, 2026, reflecting the substantial legal and political obstacles facing the Iranian opposition figure's potential return to his homeland.
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?
François Asselineau, leader of the far-right UPR party, is priced at just 0.5% to win France's 2027 presidential election, reflecting his marginal political standing despite substantial market volume.
Xi Jinping out by June 30?
Prediction markets are assigning a 2.2% probability to Chinese leader Xi Jinping being removed from power by June 30, 2026, indicating traders view the likelihood as extremely remote despite China's history of political upheaval.
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Prediction markets are pricing a roughly 1-in-3 chance that the United States will launch a military offensive to control Iranian territory by end of 2026, with stable pricing reflecting persistent geopolitical tensions but no imminent military action.
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Prediction markets are pricing a roughly one-in-three chance that the United States and Iran will reach an official nuclear agreement by June 30, 2026, with substantial trading volume reflecting sustained investor interest despite minimal recent momentum.
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?
Prediction markets assess a 35.2% probability that Israel will conduct aerial strikes across at least three different countries during 2026, reflecting moderate expectations of regional military escalation beyond current conflict zones.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Prediction markets assess only a 9.5% probability of an official Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026, reflecting skepticism about near-term diplomatic breakthroughs despite ongoing international mediation efforts.
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
A prediction market on whether the US will obtain Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, 2026, stands at 8.5% probability with substantial trading volume, indicating traders view such possession as an unlikely near-term outcome despite ongoing tensions.