Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Prediction markets price the probability of exiled Iranian opposition leader Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30, 2026 at just 5.5%, reflecting the entrenched political barriers to such a visit amid ongoing tensions between the opposition and the Islamic Republic.
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Prediction markets are assigning a 7.5% probability that Iran will lose control of Kharg Island by May 31, 2026, reflecting broad skepticism about a major shift in the strategic balance despite ongoing regional tensions.
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
A prediction market on whether an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire will be extended by April 26, 2026, is pricing in near-certain odds at 100%, reflecting confidence that a formal extension of the initial 10-day agreement will materialize within ten days of its announcement.
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Prediction markets assess the probability of a Chinese military offensive against Taiwan by June 2026 at 2%, reflecting market consensus that major escalation remains unlikely over the next 18 months despite ongoing geopolitical friction across the Taiwan Strait.
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Prediction markets are pricing a US-Iran nuclear agreement as nearly even odds at 53.5% probability through end of 2026, reflecting deep uncertainty over whether diplomatic channels can overcome years of escalating tensions and divergent negotiating positions.
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Prediction market participants assess only a 12.5% probability that Iran will publicly agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026, reflecting deep skepticism about near-term nuclear diplomacy breakthroughs.
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Prediction markets are pricing a 14% probability that the U.S. will acquire territorial control of any part of Greenland by year-end 2026, reflecting skepticism about the feasibility of such a transfer despite recent political rhetoric from U.S. leadership.
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
A prediction market assessing where the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting will occur by mid-2026 is pricing Pakistan at 100% probability, reflecting confidence in Islamabad's role as a neutral mediator in US-Iranian relations despite broader regional tensions.
Iran Nuke before 2027?
Prediction market traders are pricing a roughly 1-in-10 chance that Iran acquires nuclear weapons by end-2026, reflecting persistent uncertainties over Tehran's nuclear program amid stalled diplomatic efforts and mixed signals on enrichment capabilities.
Xi Jinping out by June 30?
Prediction markets are pricing Xi Jinping's removal from power as a 2.2% probability through June 2026, reflecting the institutional stability of China's leadership structure despite occasional political tensions.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Prediction markets are pricing a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026 at just 6.8%, reflecting widespread skepticism that either side will agree to a general halt in military operations within the next 18 months.
Iran leadership change by December 31?
A prediction market on whether Mojtaba Khamenei will cease to be Iran's de facto leader by year-end is trading at 33.5% probability, reflecting significant uncertainty about potential transitions in the Islamic Republic's top leadership position.
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Prediction markets are pricing a roughly one-in-three chance of a U.S. military offensive against Iran before the end of 2026, reflecting significant geopolitical tensions but also substantial skepticism about actual escalation to full-scale invasion.
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
A prediction market on US-Iran nuclear negotiations is pricing in roughly a one-in-three chance of a formal agreement by June 30, 2026, with modest trading volume suggesting limited conviction either direction among investors.
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
A prediction market asking whether Jeffrey Epstein could be proven alive before 2027 is trading at a 4.2% probability with significant volume, reflecting broad dismissal of survival theories despite ongoing public curiosity about the financier's 2019 death.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Prediction markets assign only a 9.5% probability to a formal ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, reflecting widespread skepticism about near-term diplomatic breakthroughs despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Prediction markets are assigning only a 6.5% probability that Iran's Islamic Republic will fall by mid-2026, reflecting widespread expectations of regime durability despite ongoing domestic pressures and international tensions.
Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?
A prediction market on whether Israel or the US will conduct a kinetic military strike against Iran's Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center by March 31, 2026, is trading at 100% probability, reflecting either extreme confidence in an imminent attack or potential market dysfunction.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Prediction market participants assign only a 5.5% probability that Strait of Hormuz transit traffic will return to normal levels by mid-May 2026, with $4 million in trading volume suggesting sustained skepticism about a near-term recovery in one of the world's most critical shipping chokepoints.
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
A prediction market tracking the possibility of active US military personnel physically entering Iran by year-end is pricing the event at just 0.7% probability, with nearly $18 million in trading volume suggesting strong consensus that such an incursion is highly unlikely in the remaining timeframe.