Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Prediction markets are pricing a 6.5% chance that Donald Trump will win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, reflecting skepticism about the former president's candidacy despite his diplomatic initiatives. The modest probability suggests traders view the award's traditional focus on humanitarian work and conflict resolution as favoring other potential honorees.
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Prediction markets assign just a 0.3% probability to Judy Shelton becoming Federal Reserve Chair, reflecting substantial structural and political barriers to her confirmation despite $17.5 million in trading volume on the question.
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Prediction markets currently assess Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman as having a 34.2% chance of winning the 2026 mayoral election, reflecting her status as a serious candidate in what is expected to be a competitive multi-candidate race.
Trump out as President before 2027?
Prediction markets are assigning a 13.5% probability that Donald Trump will permanently leave office before the end of 2026, implying traders view the risk of resignation, removal, or sustained constitutional action as relatively modest over the next two years.
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
The Alternative for Germany party holds a 17.5% probability of winning the most seats in Berlin's September 2026 state elections, reflecting significant structural barriers despite the party's national strength. Market pricing suggests established parties maintain substantial advantages in the capital's competitive political landscape.
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?
Prediction markets are assigning just 0.5% probability that Benjamin Netanyahu will permanently leave office before the end of 2026, reflecting confidence in his political durability despite ongoing legal challenges and coalition pressures.
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
A prediction market betting on official US government confirmation of extraterrestrial life or technology by end-2026 is priced at 17.5%, reflecting skepticism about formal disclosure despite recent congressional interest in UFO phenomena.
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets assess a low probability that Ukraine will recapture any territory in Crimea by the end of 2026, with current odds at 7.5% despite substantial trading volume. The assessment reflects the significant military and logistical barriers to retaking the Russian-occupied peninsula within the timeframe.
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Prediction markets assign Tom Steyer just 0.1% odds of winning California's 2026 gubernatorial election, despite his substantial wealth and political experience. The vanishingly low probability reflects skepticism about his viability in a crowded field, even as a self-funded candidate.
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets are pricing a roughly two-in-three chance that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will leave office by the end of 2026, reflecting ongoing political volatility in Westminster despite stable market pricing over recent days.
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
A proposed one-time wealth tax on California billionaires is trading at 44.5% odds of passage in the November 2026 election, reflecting significant uncertainty about both ballot qualification and voter approval.
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
Prediction markets are pricing the probability that no Trump Cabinet member departs before 2027 at just 0.1%, implying near-universal expectation of at least one resignation or removal over the coming years. The extreme odds reflect historical patterns of Cabinet turnover and current political volatility.
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
A prediction market is trading at 4.2% probability that Jeffrey Epstein will be proven alive before 2027, reflecting lingering conspiracy theories surrounding the financier's 2019 death in custody despite substantial official documentation.
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Prediction markets price a 9.6% probability that the United States will formally initiate withdrawal from NATO by year-end 2026, reflecting baseline political risk while sustained institutional resistance constrains near-term escalation scenarios.
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Prediction markets assign only a 0.3% probability to Judy Shelton becoming the next confirmed Federal Reserve Chair, reflecting substantial political and procedural barriers despite her prior nomination and Senate consideration.
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Nithya Raman, the Los Angeles city councilmember, is trading at 33.1% probability to win the 2026 mayoral election, positioning her as a leading candidate in the crowded field. The odds reflect her established political base and name recognition alongside significant uncertainty about the broader race.
Trump out as President before 2027?
A prediction market tracking the odds of Donald Trump leaving the presidency before the end of 2026 is pricing the outcome at 13.5%, suggesting traders view permanent removal as unlikely but non-negligible over the next two years.
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Prediction markets currently assess the Alternative for Germany (AfD) at roughly one-in-six odds of winning the greatest number of seats in Berlin's September 2026 state elections, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about the far-right party's trajectory and coalition dynamics in the capital.
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Prediction markets are pricing a US-Iran nuclear agreement by end-2026 at 53.5%, reflecting balanced uncertainty about whether diplomatic negotiations can overcome substantial geopolitical obstacles within the next two years.
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
A prediction market values the probability that Renan Santos will finish second in the first round of Brazil's October 2026 presidential election at just 5%, reflecting the long odds facing the former senator in an increasingly crowded field.