Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?
François Asselineau, leader of the anti-EU Union Populaire Républicaine party, is assigned just a 0.5% probability of winning the 2027 French presidential election, reflecting his status as a fringe candidate despite commanding nearly $3 billion in prediction market volume.
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Prediction markets currently price Seo Young-kyo's chances of winning the 2026 Seoul mayoral election at just 0.2%, despite substantial trading volume, reflecting broad market skepticism about the politician's electoral viability in South Korea's capital.
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
A proposed one-time wealth tax on California billionaires is trading at 44.5% probability of passage in the November 2026 general election, reflecting significant uncertainty about both ballot qualification and voter approval for a measure opposed by wealthy interests but backed by labor unions.
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
A prediction market on whether President Trump will announce an end to military operations against Iran by May 31st is trading at 100% probability, reflecting traders' conviction that such an announcement is virtually assured within the timeframe.
Trump out as President before 2027?
Prediction markets are pricing the probability of Donald Trump's permanent removal from the presidency before the end of 2026 at 13.5%, a level that reflects historical constitutional procedures and current political dynamics without pricing in any imminent threat to his tenure.
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Prediction markets are assigning an 18.5% probability to the fall of Iran's Islamic Republic by end-2026, implying traders view regime change as unlikely but material over the next two years despite ongoing internal tensions and recent unrest.
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Prediction markets are pricing Tom Steyer as a leading contender for California's 2026 gubernatorial election, with a 43.4% win probability reflecting his substantial personal wealth, political experience, and name recognition in the state. The high odds suggest market participants view him as a front-runner despite the race being more than 18 months away.
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?
Prediction markets currently price Yoo Jeong-bok's chances of winning the Incheon mayoral election at just 1.7%, reflecting low market confidence in his candidacy despite significant trading volume in the market.
Trump out as President by June 30?
Prediction markets are pricing the probability of Donald Trump leaving office before June 30, 2026 at 2.4%, reflecting market consensus that permanent presidential removal remains a remote scenario despite significant political headwinds.
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Prediction markets currently price Donald Trump's chances of winning the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize at 6.5%, reflecting skepticism about a former U.S. president securing the award despite his Middle East diplomacy efforts. The modest probability underscores the prize committee's traditional focus on humanitarian and peace-building work rather than geopolitical deal-making.
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Prediction markets are assigning a 40.5% probability that Keir Starmer will cease to be Prime Minister by June 30, 2026, reflecting significant uncertainty about his political durability despite Labour's recent election victory.
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Prediction markets assign the Alternative for Germany (AfD) a one-in-six chance of securing the largest share of seats in September 2026's Berlin state parliament election, reflecting significant uncertainty about a contest where the party faces entrenched establishment opposition despite recent gains elsewhere in Germany.
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Prediction markets are pricing the collapse of Iran's Islamic Republic by May 31, 2026 at just 2.6%, indicating traders view a regime change within 18 months as highly unlikely despite ongoing internal pressures and social unrest.
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Prediction markets assign just 0.3% odds to Judy Shelton becoming the next confirmed Federal Reserve Chair, reflecting substantial political and procedural hurdles despite sustained trading interest.
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Prediction markets are assigning a low 8.5% probability to the US gaining possession of Iranian enriched uranium by the end of May 2026, reflecting the significant diplomatic and logistical barriers to such an outcome despite elevated US-Iran tensions.
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Prediction markets assign just a 5.1% probability to Russia's Liberal Democratic Party gaining the most seats in September 2026 parliamentary elections, reflecting the dominance of the ruling United Russia party and structural barriers facing opposition groups.
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?
François Asselineau, leader of the Union Populaire Républicaine party, is trading at 0.5% probability to win the 2027 French presidential election, reflecting market consensus that his candidacy remains a marginal prospect despite significant trading volume in the market.
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Prediction markets assign only 0.2% probability to Seo Young-kyo winning Seoul's mayoralty in June 2026, reflecting either low name recognition, weak polling position, or substantial competition from better-positioned candidates.
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
A proposed one-time wealth tax targeting California billionaires is priced at 44.5% probability of passing in the November 2026 election, reflecting significant uncertainty around both ballot qualification and voter approval. The measure must clear multiple hurdles—signature gathering, legal challenges, and ultimately public support—before it can become law.
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
A prediction market on whether Trump will announce an end to military operations against Iran by May 31st is trading at 100% probability, reflecting either imminent resolution or structural market conditions that have eliminated uncertainty from pricing.