Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Prediction markets are currently assigning a 40.5% probability that Keir Starmer will cease being Prime Minister by June 30, 2026, reflecting significant political uncertainty around the Labour government's stability and electoral prospects over the next nine months.
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
Prediction markets assign a 6.5% probability to a U.S. military invasion of Greenland by year-end 2026, with nearly $1.35 million in trading volume reflecting genuine uncertainty despite the scenario's historical improbability.
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
A prediction market on whether President Trump will announce an end to military operations against Iran by June 30, 2026, is trading at 100% probability, suggesting traders view an official conclusion announcement as virtually certain within the timeframe.
Trump out as President before 2027?
Prediction markets are currently pricing the probability of Donald Trump leaving office before the end of 2026 at 13.5%, reflecting assessments of both formal removal mechanisms and potential voluntary resignation. The stable odds suggest traders view permanent departure as unlikely but non-negligible over the roughly two-year timeframe.
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
A prediction market on whether the United States will acquire territorial control of Greenland by end-2026 is trading at 14% probability, pricing in a scenario that remains unlikely but carries elevated geopolitical uncertainty amid renewed U.S. interest in the Arctic territory.
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
A prediction market on whether the United States will invade Cuba by year-end 2026 is pricing in roughly one-in-four odds of military action, with $1.5 million in trading volume suggesting sustained interest in the question despite stable recent pricing.
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Prediction markets are currently pricing an 18.5% probability that Iran's Islamic Republic will fall by the end of 2026, reflecting significant uncertainty about the regime's stability amid domestic pressures but skepticism about a complete systemic collapse within roughly two years.
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Prediction markets assess a 9.5% probability that Reza Pahlavi will exercise de facto control over Iran by end-2026, reflecting the significant structural barriers to regime change in the Islamic Republic within the timeframe despite ongoing internal tensions.
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
The Liberal Democratic Party of Russia faces long odds in a September 2026 parliamentary election, with prediction markets pricing its chances of gaining the most seats at just 5.1%. The assessment reflects the party's historical positioning as a minor player in Russian politics despite occasional electoral volatility.
Trump out as President by June 30?
Prediction markets price the probability of Donald Trump leaving office by June 2026 at just 2.4%, reflecting investor skepticism about removal via resignation, impeachment, or constitutional mechanisms despite significant political uncertainties ahead.
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
A prediction market is currently assessing a 65.1% probability that Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, will exercise de facto control over Iran's government by December 31, 2026. The market reflects significant uncertainty about Iran's political succession and the potential consolidation of power within the ruling family.
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
A prediction market on Vladimir Putin's removal as Russian President by June 30 is priced at just 2.7% probability, indicating traders assign minimal odds to his departure within the next six months despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
Prediction markets are pricing Graham Platner at 98.8% probability to win the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate nomination, reflecting near-certainty among traders that he will be the party's standard-bearer in the general election.
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Prediction markets assign a 6.5% probability to Donald Trump winning the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, reflecting skepticism about his chances despite his involvement in diplomatic initiatives. The modest odds underscore the Norwegian Nobel Committee's historical preference for humanitarian and conflict-resolution work over political figures.
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Prediction markets currently price Tom Steyer's chances of winning California's 2026 gubernatorial election at 43.4%, suggesting he remains a leading contender despite the race still being two years away. The relatively high probability reflects Steyer's name recognition, wealth, and political infrastructure, though significant uncertainty remains about the broader field.
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Prediction markets assign just 0.3% probability to Judy Shelton becoming the next confirmed Federal Reserve Chair, reflecting substantial political and procedural obstacles to her nomination and confirmation despite high trading volume in the market.
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
A proposed one-time wealth tax targeting California billionaires has generated significant trading interest, with prediction markets currently assigning a 44.5% probability of passage in the November 2026 election. The outcome hinges on whether proponents can secure ballot certification and navigate California's historically challenging path for wealth-based taxation measures.
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
A prediction market assessing the probability of active US forces physically entering Iranian territory by December 31 is pricing the outcome at 99.3%, effectively pricing in that such an incursion will not occur.
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Prediction market traders are assigning a 40.5% probability that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will leave office by June 30, 2026, reflecting significant uncertainty about the stability of his Labour government despite its recent electoral victory.
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
A prediction market asking whether Jeffrey Epstein is alive before 2027 is trading at 4.2% probability, reflecting minimal investor confidence in conspiracy theories surrounding the financier's 2019 death. The thin odds suggest most market participants accept official accounts while leaving room for fringe scenarios.