World News

Iran uranium enrichment pledge unlikely by mid-2026, markets price at 25.5%

World News

Iran uranium enrichment pledge unlikely by mid-2026, markets price at 25.5%

Prediction markets are assigning roughly one-in-four odds that Iran will publicly agree to end all uranium enrichment by June 30, 2026, reflecting dee...

20. 5. 2026, 17:54:51 · +0.0%

US-Iran Permanent Peace Deal Market Prices Skepticism at 22.5% Odds Through May 2026

World News

US-Iran Permanent Peace Deal Market Prices Skepticism at 22.5% Odds Through May 2026

Prediction market participants assign a 22.5% probability to a permanent peace deal between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, reflecting the...

20. 5. 2026, 15:24:04 · +0.0%

Reza Pahlavi Iran Return Odds Hold Steady at 5.5% Through Mid-2026

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Reza Pahlavi Iran Return Odds Hold Steady at 5.5% Through Mid-2026

Prediction markets price the chance of Iran's exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30, 2026 at just 5.5%, reflecting the substa...

20. 5. 2026, 12:22:42 · +0.0%

Kharg Island Control Market Prices Iran Retaining Strategic Oil Hub Through Mid-2026

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Kharg Island Control Market Prices Iran Retaining Strategic Oil Hub Through Mid-2026

20. 5. 2026, 09:21:25 · +0.0%

Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Extension Priced at Certainty as April 26 Deadline Approaches

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Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Extension Priced at Certainty as April 26 Deadline Approaches

20. 5. 2026, 06:12:58 · +0.0%

China-Taiwan Military Invasion Risk Priced at 2% Through Mid-2026

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China-Taiwan Military Invasion Risk Priced at 2% Through Mid-2026

20. 5. 2026, 03:11:33 · +0.0%

US-Iran Nuclear Deal Odds Hold Steady at 53% Ahead of 2027 Deadline

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US-Iran Nuclear Deal Odds Hold Steady at 53% Ahead of 2027 Deadline

20. 5. 2026, 00:10:36 · +0.0%

Iran Uranium Surrender Accord Seen as Unlikely Near-Term Outcome, Priced at 12.5%

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Iran Uranium Surrender Accord Seen as Unlikely Near-Term Outcome, Priced at 12.5%

19. 5. 2026, 23:39:58 · +0.0%

Iranian Regime Stability Market Holds at 18.5% Collapse Probability Through 2026

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Iranian Regime Stability Market Holds at 18.5% Collapse Probability Through 2026

19. 5. 2026, 22:09:00 · +0.0%

Pakistan Dominates US-Iran Diplomatic Meeting Odds as Speculation Swirls Over Venue Selection

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Pakistan Dominates US-Iran Diplomatic Meeting Odds as Speculation Swirls Over Venue Selection

19. 5. 2026, 19:07:51 · +0.0%

Iran Nuclear Weapon by 2026 Priced at 9.6% Probability in Prediction Markets

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Iran Nuclear Weapon by 2026 Priced at 9.6% Probability in Prediction Markets

19. 5. 2026, 18:07:33 · +0.0%

Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire by Mid-2026 Priced at 6.8%, Reflecting Entrenched Conflict

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Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire by Mid-2026 Priced at 6.8%, Reflecting Entrenched Conflict

19. 5. 2026, 17:06:45 · +0.0%

Iran Leadership Market Prices Significant Succession Risk Before Year-End

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Iran Leadership Market Prices Significant Succession Risk Before Year-End

19. 5. 2026, 13:35:25 · +0.0%

Iran Invasion Odds Hold Steady at 30.5% Through 2026

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Iran Invasion Odds Hold Steady at 30.5% Through 2026

19. 5. 2026, 10:34:14 · +0.0%

Iran Nuclear Deal by June 2026 Seen at 31.5% Odds; Diplomatic Path Remains Open but Uncertain

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Iran Nuclear Deal by June 2026 Seen at 31.5% Odds; Diplomatic Path Remains Open but Uncertain

19. 5. 2026, 07:32:49 · +0.0%

Epstein Alive Conspiracy Market Holds Steady at 4% as Traders Weigh Unlikely Scenario

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Epstein Alive Conspiracy Market Holds Steady at 4% as Traders Weigh Unlikely Scenario

19. 5. 2026, 07:30:10 · +0.0%

Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire by Mid-2026 Priced at Just 9.5% as Market Sees Slim Near-Term Peace Prospects

World News

Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire by Mid-2026 Priced at Just 9.5% as Market Sees Slim Near-Term Peace Prospects

19. 5. 2026, 06:28:40 · +0.0%

AfD seen at 17.5% odds to lead in 2026 Berlin elections despite party strength

World News

AfD seen at 17.5% odds to lead in 2026 Berlin elections despite party strength

19. 5. 2026, 03:57:50 · +0.0%

Prediction Market Prices In Certainty of Strike on Iran Nuclear Facility by March 2026

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Prediction Market Prices In Certainty of Strike on Iran Nuclear Facility by March 2026

19. 5. 2026, 00:56:45 · +0.0%

Israel Strike Market Pricing 35% Chance of Multi-Country Operations in 2026

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Israel Strike Market Pricing 35% Chance of Multi-Country Operations in 2026

18. 5. 2026, 23:55:58 · +0.0%

Iranian Regime Collapse Market Holds at 2.6% Probability Through May 2026

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Iranian Regime Collapse Market Holds at 2.6% Probability Through May 2026

18. 5. 2026, 21:55:23 · +0.0%

US Military Entry Into Iran Seen as Highly Unlikely by Year-End, Market Prices at 99.3% No

World News

US Military Entry Into Iran Seen as Highly Unlikely by Year-End, Market Prices at 99.3% No

18. 5. 2026, 18:54:12 · +0.0%

Iran uranium enrichment deal unlikely by mid-2026, prediction market shows at 25% odds

World News

Iran uranium enrichment deal unlikely by mid-2026, prediction market shows at 25% odds

18. 5. 2026, 15:53:02 · +0.0%

US-Iran Permanent Peace Deal Seen as Long Shot, Market Prices at 22.5% by May 2026

World News

US-Iran Permanent Peace Deal Seen as Long Shot, Market Prices at 22.5% by May 2026

18. 5. 2026, 14:52:12 · +0.0%