World News

U.S.-Russia Military Clash Seen as Remote Risk Through 2026, Priced at 4% Probability

World News

U.S.-Russia Military Clash Seen as Remote Risk Through 2026, Priced at 4% Probability

Prediction markets are pricing the probability of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian forces by end of 2026 at just 4%, reflecting ass...

10. 8. 2026, 13:38:13 · +0.0%

China-Taiwan Military Clash Odds Remain Subdued at 8.5% Through 2026

World News

China-Taiwan Military Clash Odds Remain Subdued at 8.5% Through 2026

Prediction markets are pricing a low probability of direct military conflict between China and Taiwan over the next 14 months, with current odds holdi...

10. 8. 2026, 10:36:51 · +0.0%

Isfahan Nuclear Facility Strike Seen as Certain by Market; Traders Betting on Israel or US Action by March 2026

World News

Isfahan Nuclear Facility Strike Seen as Certain by Market; Traders Betting on Israel or US Action by March 2026

A prediction market on potential military strikes against Iran's Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center is trading at 100% probability, reflecting trader c...

10. 8. 2026, 07:35:38 · +0.0%

Iran Leadership Succession Market Prices One-in-Three Odds of Khamenei Transition by Year-End

World News

Iran Leadership Succession Market Prices One-in-Three Odds of Khamenei Transition by Year-End

10. 8. 2026, 07:05:12 · +0.0%

Market Prices US Military Entry into Iran as Highly Unlikely by Year-End

World News

Market Prices US Military Entry into Iran as Highly Unlikely by Year-End

10. 8. 2026, 06:35:02 · +0.0%

Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Extension Priced at Certainty as April 16 Agreement Takes Hold

World News

Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Extension Priced at Certainty as April 16 Agreement Takes Hold

10. 8. 2026, 03:33:46 · +0.0%

Greenland Acquisition Odds Hold at 14% as Market Prices in Diplomatic Uncertainty

World News

Greenland Acquisition Odds Hold at 14% as Market Prices in Diplomatic Uncertainty

10. 8. 2026, 00:32:16 · +0.0%

US-Iran Nuclear Deal Odds Hold at Even Money as Diplomatic Path Remains Uncertain

World News

US-Iran Nuclear Deal Odds Hold at Even Money as Diplomatic Path Remains Uncertain

9. 8. 2026, 21:31:01 · +0.0%

Iran Nuclear Stockpile Surrender Seen as Unlikely by June 2026, Markets Price at 12.5%

World News

Iran Nuclear Stockpile Surrender Seen as Unlikely by June 2026, Markets Price at 12.5%

9. 8. 2026, 21:00:48 · +0.0%

Russia Capture of Kostyantynivka Railroad Station Priced at 91% Through End of 2026

World News

Russia Capture of Kostyantynivka Railroad Station Priced at 91% Through End of 2026

9. 8. 2026, 18:59:29 · -0.7%

Iran succession market sees 65% odds Mojtaba Khamenei holds power by end-2026

World News

Iran succession market sees 65% odds Mojtaba Khamenei holds power by end-2026

9. 8. 2026, 18:29:18 · +0.0%

Iranian Regime Collapse by 2027 Priced at 18.5% Probability in Prediction Market

World News

Iranian Regime Collapse by 2027 Priced at 18.5% Probability in Prediction Market

9. 8. 2026, 17:28:35 · +0.0%

LDPR Long Shot for 2026 Russian Parliamentary Gains at 5% Probability

World News

LDPR Long Shot for 2026 Russian Parliamentary Gains at 5% Probability

9. 8. 2026, 13:26:10 · +0.0%

Iran Nuclear Weapon by 2027 Seen as Low-Probability Event at 9.6% in Prediction Markets

World News

Iran Nuclear Weapon by 2027 Seen as Low-Probability Event at 9.6% in Prediction Markets

9. 8. 2026, 10:24:54 · +0.0%

Tarcisio de Freitas Given Minimal Chance in 2026 Brazilian Presidential Race

World News

Tarcisio de Freitas Given Minimal Chance in 2026 Brazilian Presidential Race

9. 8. 2026, 09:54:11 · +0.0%

Asselineau's 2027 French Presidential Bid Priced at 0.5% — Market Reflects Structural Barriers

World News

Asselineau's 2027 French Presidential Bid Priced at 0.5% — Market Reflects Structural Barriers

9. 8. 2026, 06:52:55 · +0.0%

Israel Striking 3+ Countries in 2026 Priced at 35% as Regional Tensions Remain Elevated

World News

Israel Striking 3+ Countries in 2026 Priced at 35% as Regional Tensions Remain Elevated

9. 8. 2026, 03:51:43 · +0.0%

U.S. Iran Invasion Odds Hold Steady at 30.5% Through 2026

World News

U.S. Iran Invasion Odds Hold Steady at 30.5% Through 2026

9. 8. 2026, 02:21:12 · +0.0%

Prediction Market Assigns 7% Conviction Odds in Toronto Sexual Assault Case

World News

Prediction Market Assigns 7% Conviction Odds in Toronto Sexual Assault Case

9. 8. 2026, 14:27:15 · +0.0%