Politics News

Trump Nobel Peace Prize Odds Hold Steady at 6.5% Ahead of 2026 Award

Politics

Trump Nobel Peace Prize Odds Hold Steady at 6.5% Ahead of 2026 Award

Prediction markets are pricing a 6.5% chance that Donald Trump will win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, reflecting skepticism about the former president's...

10. 8. 2026, 13:08:02 · +0.0%

Judy Shelton Fed Chair Odds Remain Negligible at 0.3% Despite High Market Activity

Politics

Judy Shelton Fed Chair Odds Remain Negligible at 0.3% Despite High Market Activity

Prediction markets assign just a 0.3% probability to Judy Shelton becoming Federal Reserve Chair, reflecting substantial structural and political barr...

10. 8. 2026, 10:06:39 · +0.0%

Raman Positioned as Credible Contender in 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Race at 34% Odds

Politics

Raman Positioned as Credible Contender in 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Race at 34% Odds

Prediction markets currently assess Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman as having a 34.2% chance of winning the 2026 mayoral election, reflect...

10. 8. 2026, 08:06:18 · +1.8%

Trump Removal Before 2027 Priced at 13.5% as Market Reflects Low Near-Term Exit Risk

Politics

Trump Removal Before 2027 Priced at 13.5% as Market Reflects Low Near-Term Exit Risk

10. 8. 2026, 04:04:05 · +0.0%

AfD faces headwinds in 2026 Berlin state race, holding 17.5% win probability

Politics

AfD faces headwinds in 2026 Berlin state race, holding 17.5% win probability

10. 8. 2026, 01:02:28 · +0.0%

Netanyahu Departure Before 2027 Priced at Near-Zero Odds Despite Political Turbulence

Politics

Netanyahu Departure Before 2027 Priced at Near-Zero Odds Despite Political Turbulence

9. 8. 2026, 22:01:12 · +0.0%

US Alien Confirmation Market Holds at 17.5% as Definition Questions Loom

Politics

US Alien Confirmation Market Holds at 17.5% as Definition Questions Loom

9. 8. 2026, 13:26:25 · +0.0%

Ukraine Crimea Recapture Market Prices 7.5% Odds Through End of 2026

Politics

Ukraine Crimea Recapture Market Prices 7.5% Odds Through End of 2026

9. 8. 2026, 10:24:24 · +0.0%

Tom Steyer California Governor Bid Priced at Negligible Odds in 2026 Race

Politics

Tom Steyer California Governor Bid Priced at Negligible Odds in 2026 Race

9. 8. 2026, 07:23:04 · +0.0%

Starmer Departure Odds Hold at 65.5% Through 2026 as UK Political Uncertainty Persists

Politics

Starmer Departure Odds Hold at 65.5% Through 2026 as UK Political Uncertainty Persists

9. 8. 2026, 04:21:53 · +0.0%

California Billionaire Wealth Tax Proposition Faces Uncertain Path to 2026 Ballot

Politics

California Billionaire Wealth Tax Proposition Faces Uncertain Path to 2026 Ballot

9. 8. 2026, 00:50:10 · +0.0%

Trump Cabinet Stability Priced as Near-Certainty in Prediction Markets

Politics

Trump Cabinet Stability Priced as Near-Certainty in Prediction Markets

8. 8. 2026, 20:47:58 · +0.0%

Epstein Alive Conspiracy Theory Persists at 4% Odds Despite Decade of Official Declarations

Politics

Epstein Alive Conspiracy Theory Persists at 4% Odds Despite Decade of Official Declarations

8. 8. 2026, 16:14:59 · +0.0%

NATO Withdrawal Odds Hold Steady at 9.6% Through 2026

Politics

NATO Withdrawal Odds Hold Steady at 9.6% Through 2026

8. 8. 2026, 13:13:18 · +0.0%

Judy Shelton Fed Chair Confirmation Odds Trade at Historic Lows of 0.3%

Politics

Judy Shelton Fed Chair Confirmation Odds Trade at Historic Lows of 0.3%

8. 8. 2026, 09:41:35 · +0.0%

Nithya Raman emerges as competitive contender in 2026 LA mayoral race, held at one-in-three odds

Politics

Nithya Raman emerges as competitive contender in 2026 LA mayoral race, held at one-in-three odds

8. 8. 2026, 07:10:39 · +6.8%

Trump Removal Market Holds at 13.5% Odds Through 2026

Politics

Trump Removal Market Holds at 13.5% Odds Through 2026

8. 8. 2026, 03:08:34 · +0.0%

AfD Given 17.5% Chance to Win Most Seats in 2026 Berlin Elections

Politics

AfD Given 17.5% Chance to Win Most Seats in 2026 Berlin Elections

8. 8. 2026, 00:07:18 · +0.0%

US-Iran Nuclear Deal Before 2027 Seen at Even Odds as Diplomatic Window Remains Open

Politics

US-Iran Nuclear Deal Before 2027 Seen at Even Odds as Diplomatic Window Remains Open

7. 8. 2026, 21:06:05 · +0.0%

Renan Santos Given 5% Chance of Second-Place Finish in Brazil's 2026 Presidential First Round

Politics

Renan Santos Given 5% Chance of Second-Place Finish in Brazil's 2026 Presidential First Round

7. 8. 2026, 19:04:50 · +0.0%

Bennett given one-in-three odds to become Israel's next PM after 2026 election

Politics

Bennett given one-in-three odds to become Israel's next PM after 2026 election

7. 8. 2026, 14:32:04 · +0.0%

LDPR Long Shot in 2026 Russian Elections as Market Assigns 5% Probability to Seat Gains

Politics

LDPR Long Shot in 2026 Russian Elections as Market Assigns 5% Probability to Seat Gains

7. 8. 2026, 11:30:15 · +0.0%

Ukraine Crimea Recapture Market Prices Low Odds Despite Ongoing War

Politics

Ukraine Crimea Recapture Market Prices Low Odds Despite Ongoing War

7. 8. 2026, 08:28:45 · +0.0%

Tom Steyer's California Governor Bid Priced at 0.1%, Reflecting Long-Shot Status in 2026 Race

Politics

Tom Steyer's California Governor Bid Priced at 0.1%, Reflecting Long-Shot Status in 2026 Race

7. 8. 2026, 05:27:30 · +0.0%