Politics News

California Billionaire Wealth Tax Faces 50-50 Odds in 2026 Election Bet

Politics

California Billionaire Wealth Tax Faces 50-50 Odds in 2026 Election Bet

A prediction market values the chance of a one-time California wealth tax on billionaires passing in 2026 at 44.5%, reflecting significant uncertainty...

5. 7. 2026, 00:13:31 · +0.0%

Judy Shelton's Path to Fed Chair Remains Extremely Unlikely at 0.3% Odds

Politics

Judy Shelton's Path to Fed Chair Remains Extremely Unlikely at 0.3% Odds

Prediction markets assign a minimal 0.3% probability to Judy Shelton becoming the next confirmed Federal Reserve Chair, reflecting significant politic...

4. 7. 2026, 21:12:18 · +0.0%

Reza Pahlavi Remains Long-Shot Bet at 9.5% Odds for Iran Leadership by End of 2026

Politics

Reza Pahlavi Remains Long-Shot Bet at 9.5% Odds for Iran Leadership by End of 2026

Prediction markets price the exiled Iranian royalist at less than one-in-ten odds of holding de facto state power by year-end 2026, reflecting the sig...

4. 7. 2026, 19:12:02 · +0.0%

Starmer Departure Odds Hold Steady at 65% Through 2026

Politics

Starmer Departure Odds Hold Steady at 65% Through 2026

4. 7. 2026, 15:40:27 · +0.0%

Trump Cabinet Stability Market Prices in Near-Certainty of Turnover Before 2027

Politics

Trump Cabinet Stability Market Prices in Near-Certainty of Turnover Before 2027

4. 7. 2026, 12:39:06 · +0.0%

Trump Removal Before 2027 Priced at 13.5%, Reflecting Institutional Barriers to Ouster

Politics

Trump Removal Before 2027 Priced at 13.5%, Reflecting Institutional Barriers to Ouster

4. 7. 2026, 08:37:13 · +0.0%

Iran Nuclear Surrender Market Prices Low Odds on Enriched Uranium Deal by June 2026

Politics

Iran Nuclear Surrender Market Prices Low Odds on Enriched Uranium Deal by June 2026

4. 7. 2026, 05:35:53 · +0.0%

US Alien Confirmation Market Holds Steady at 17.5% as Official Disclosure Remains Unlikely by 2027

Politics

US Alien Confirmation Market Holds Steady at 17.5% as Official Disclosure Remains Unlikely by 2027

4. 7. 2026, 02:03:56 · +0.0%

Farage's Path to 10 Downing Street Seen as Highly Unlikely, Trading at 1.6% Through 2026

Politics

Farage's Path to 10 Downing Street Seen as Highly Unlikely, Trading at 1.6% Through 2026

3. 7. 2026, 23:02:27 · +0.0%

Iranian Regime Collapse Before 2027 Priced at 18.5%, Reflecting Structural Resilience Against Near-Term Overthrow

Politics

Iranian Regime Collapse Before 2027 Priced at 18.5%, Reflecting Structural Resilience Against Near-Term Overthrow

3. 7. 2026, 22:32:03 · +0.0%

AfD Given 17.5% Chance to Lead in 2026 Berlin State Elections

Politics

AfD Given 17.5% Chance to Lead in 2026 Berlin State Elections

3. 7. 2026, 19:30:53 · +0.0%

NATO Withdrawal Market Prices US Exit Risk at Near Single Digits Through 2026

Politics

NATO Withdrawal Market Prices US Exit Risk at Near Single Digits Through 2026

3. 7. 2026, 16:29:43 · +0.0%

Renan Santos Given 5% Chance at Second Place in 2026 Brazil Presidential First Round

Politics

Renan Santos Given 5% Chance at Second Place in 2026 Brazil Presidential First Round

3. 7. 2026, 13:28:42 · +0.0%

Bennett Given One-in-Three Odds to Return as Israeli PM After 2026 Elections

Politics

Bennett Given One-in-Three Odds to Return as Israeli PM After 2026 Elections

3. 7. 2026, 10:27:41 · +0.0%

Graham Platner heavily favored in Maine Democratic Senate primary at 98.8% odds

Politics

Graham Platner heavily favored in Maine Democratic Senate primary at 98.8% odds

3. 7. 2026, 07:26:10 · +0.0%

Tom Steyer Given 43% Odds in 2026 California Governor's Race

Politics

Tom Steyer Given 43% Odds in 2026 California Governor's Race

3. 7. 2026, 02:53:07 · +0.0%

Trump Nobel Peace Prize Odds Hold Steady at 6.5% Despite Unconventional Path

Politics

Trump Nobel Peace Prize Odds Hold Steady at 6.5% Despite Unconventional Path

2. 7. 2026, 23:52:07 · +0.0%

California Billionaire Wealth Tax Proposition Given Even-Money Odds for 2026 Ballot

Politics

California Billionaire Wealth Tax Proposition Given Even-Money Odds for 2026 Ballot

2. 7. 2026, 23:51:38 · +0.0%

Judy Shelton Fed Chair Odds Remain Minimal at 0.3% Despite High Market Interest

Politics

Judy Shelton Fed Chair Odds Remain Minimal at 0.3% Despite High Market Interest

2. 7. 2026, 20:50:28 · +0.0%

Prediction Market Prices Reza Pahlavi Iran Leadership at 9.5%, Reflecting Deep Structural Barriers

Politics

Prediction Market Prices Reza Pahlavi Iran Leadership at 9.5%, Reflecting Deep Structural Barriers

2. 7. 2026, 18:50:06 · +0.0%

UK Betting Markets Price Starmer Departure Odds at 65.5% Through End of 2026

Politics

UK Betting Markets Price Starmer Departure Odds at 65.5% Through End of 2026

2. 7. 2026, 15:18:51 · +0.0%

Jay Collins Given Long Odds in 2026 Florida Republican Governor Primary

Politics

Jay Collins Given Long Odds in 2026 Florida Republican Governor Primary

2. 7. 2026, 12:17:20 · +0.0%

Trump Removal Before 2027 Priced at 13.5% in Prediction Market

Politics

Trump Removal Before 2027 Priced at 13.5% in Prediction Market

2. 7. 2026, 08:15:33 · +0.0%

Republicans Held at Long Odds to Land Exactly 54 Senate Seats in 2026 Midterms

Politics

Republicans Held at Long Odds to Land Exactly 54 Senate Seats in 2026 Midterms

2. 7. 2026, 07:15:25 · +0.0%