10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
A prediction market assessing the likelihood of a magnitude 10.0 or higher earthquake occurring in 2026 is trading at 5%, reflecting the extreme rarity of such seismic events in recorded history.
US recession by end of 2026?
Prediction markets are assigning roughly one-in-four odds to a U.S. recession by end of 2026, reflecting cautious optimism about economic resilience despite persistent uncertainties around inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical risks.
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22?
Prediction market traders have assigned Richard Van De Water a 4.3% probability of winning The Bachelorette Season 22, reflecting relatively low confidence in his chances compared to other remaining contestants as the season progresses.
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets assign just a 13.5% chance that Ethereum will reach a new all-time high on Binance before the end of 2026, reflecting skepticism about near-term price appreciation despite the multi-year timeframe.
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Prediction markets currently price Seo Young-kyo's chances of winning the 2026 Seoul mayoral election at just 0.2%, despite substantial trading volume, reflecting broad market skepticism about the politician's electoral viability in South Korea's capital.
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Prediction markets are assigning a 7.5% probability that Iran will lose control of Kharg Island by May 31, 2026, reflecting broad skepticism about a major shift in the strategic balance despite ongoing regional tensions.
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Prediction market traders are assigning a 17.5% probability to official US government confirmation of extraterrestrial life or technology by end of 2026, with substantial trading volume indicating sustained interest in potential disclosure despite historical institutional reluctance.
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?
A prediction market on Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair by May 2026 is pricing the outcome at just 0.1%, reflecting widespread skepticism about his path to the position despite his financial sector credentials and prior Fed experience.
Ethereum flipped in 2026?
Prediction markets are pricing a 40.5% probability that Ethereum will fall outside the top two cryptocurrencies by market cap during 2026, reflecting growing uncertainty about the competitive landscape and Ethereum's ability to maintain its long-standing position.
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
A proposed one-time wealth tax on California billionaires is trading at 44.5% probability of passage in the November 2026 general election, reflecting significant uncertainty about both ballot qualification and voter approval for a measure opposed by wealthy interests but backed by labor unions.
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
A prediction market on whether an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire will be extended by April 26, 2026, is pricing in near-certain odds at 100%, reflecting confidence that a formal extension of the initial 10-day agreement will materialize within ten days of its announcement.
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
Prediction markets are pricing a one-in-four chance that OpenAI will go public by the end of 2026, reflecting significant skepticism about near-term IPO plans despite the company's $157 billion valuation and market prominence.
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?
Prediction markets assign only a 1.6% probability that the Federal Reserve's upper bound target rate will reach 4.5% or higher by December 2026, reflecting market consensus that monetary policy will remain accommodative well into next year despite recent inflation concerns.
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
A prediction market on whether President Trump will announce an end to military operations against Iran by May 31st is trading at 100% probability, reflecting traders' conviction that such an announcement is virtually assured within the timeframe.
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Prediction markets assess the probability of a Chinese military offensive against Taiwan by June 2026 at 2%, reflecting market consensus that major escalation remains unlikely over the next 18 months despite ongoing geopolitical friction across the Taiwan Strait.
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
Prediction markets assign a 23.5% probability that Eli Lilly's triple agonist retatrutide will receive FDA approval by end of 2026, reflecting investor caution about the timeline despite the drug's promising clinical profile across multiple indications.
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?
Prediction market participants assign a modest 12.7% chance that SpaceX will debut with a market capitalization between $2.5 trillion and $3.0 trillion on its first trading day, suggesting skepticism about a valuation at the extreme high end of the range.
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets are assigning a 65.5% probability to cryptocurrency exchange Kraken completing an initial public offering by December 31, 2026, reflecting optimism about the company's path to public markets despite regulatory uncertainty in the crypto sector.
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Prediction markets are pricing a US-Iran nuclear agreement as nearly even odds at 53.5% probability through end of 2026, reflecting deep uncertainty over whether diplomatic channels can overcome years of escalating tensions and divergent negotiating positions.
Trump out as President before 2027?
Prediction markets are pricing the probability of Donald Trump's permanent removal from the presidency before the end of 2026 at 13.5%, a level that reflects historical constitutional procedures and current political dynamics without pricing in any imminent threat to his tenure.