US recession by end of 2026?
Prediction markets are assigning roughly one-in-four odds to a U.S. recession by end of 2026, reflecting cautious optimism about economic resilience despite persistent uncertainties around inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical risks.
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?
A prediction market on Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair by May 2026 is pricing the outcome at just 0.1%, reflecting widespread skepticism about his path to the position despite his financial sector credentials and prior Fed experience.
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
Prediction markets are pricing a one-in-four chance that OpenAI will go public by the end of 2026, reflecting significant skepticism about near-term IPO plans despite the company's $157 billion valuation and market prominence.
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?
Prediction markets assign only a 1.6% probability that the Federal Reserve's upper bound target rate will reach 4.5% or higher by December 2026, reflecting market consensus that monetary policy will remain accommodative well into next year despite recent inflation concerns.
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?
Prediction market participants assign a modest 12.7% chance that SpaceX will debut with a market capitalization between $2.5 trillion and $3.0 trillion on its first trading day, suggesting skepticism about a valuation at the extreme high end of the range.
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Prediction markets assign just 0.4% probability to Tesla claiming the top market capitalization spot by June 30, 2026, reflecting skepticism about the company surpassing entrenched tech and energy giants despite its recent volatility.
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T
Prediction markets currently assign a 15.5% probability that SpaceX will debut with a market capitalization exceeding $3 trillion, reflecting skepticism about such an extreme valuation on the company's first trading day despite its dominant position in commercial spaceflight.
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Prediction markets price NVIDIA at even odds to hold the top market capitalization position through the end of 2026, reflecting intense competition from other mega-cap technology and energy firms for the world's largest company ranking.
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?
Prediction markets are pricing a 92.5% probability that SpaceX will achieve a market capitalization exceeding $1 trillion on its first trading day, reflecting widespread confidence in the company's valuation trajectory and market appetite for space industry exposure.
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?
A prediction market values the odds of Elon Musk acquiring budget airline Ryanair by mid-2026 at just 1.2%, reflecting widespread skepticism that a casual social media comment will translate into a binding deal.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Prediction market participants assign only a 3.5% probability to a 25 basis point rate increase following the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting, signaling confidence in either stable rates or potential cuts in the medium term.
Will Bernard Arnault be richest person on December 31?
Prediction markets assign only a 1.1% probability that LVMH's Bernard Arnault will remain the world's richest person by year-end 2026, reflecting significant uncertainty about luxury sector performance and wealth volatility among the ultra-wealthy.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Prediction markets assign only a one-in-five chance that transit traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal levels by the end of May 2026, with current odds reflecting persistent geopolitical tensions and shipping disruptions in one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints.
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?
Prediction market traders are assigning minimal probability to SpaceX choosing $SEX as its public ticker symbol in a potential IPO by end-2027, with current odds at 1.6% despite substantial trading volume.
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Prediction markets currently assign just a 17.5% probability to a federal funds rate increase during 2026, suggesting investors expect the Fed to maintain or potentially lower rates through the year as inflation pressures ease.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Prediction markets assign just 0.4% probability to a 50+ basis point rate increase at the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting, reflecting widespread expectations of either modest adjustments or unchanged policy by that date.
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?
Prediction market traders are pricing in a 60.5% chance that OpenAI's initial public offering will result in a closing market capitalization above $1 trillion on its first trading day, reflecting confidence in the company's valuation but substantial uncertainty about IPO timing and pricing dynamics.
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Prediction market traders assign just 0.7% odds to Kraken becoming the highest-capitalized IPO debut in 2026, reflecting skepticism that the cryptocurrency exchange will both go public and outpace a potentially deep field of competitors on its first trading day.
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026?
Prediction market traders are assigning a modest 13.5% probability that the Supreme Court will accept a case on sports event contract regulation by July 31, 2026, reflecting uncertainty about whether such a case will reach the nation's highest court within the timeframe.
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?
Prediction markets assign a 19% probability to Nebius Group being acquired by the end of 2026, reflecting skepticism about near-term M&A activity despite significant trading volume in the contract.