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Magnitude 10.0 Earthquake Odds Remain Minuscule at 5%, Reflecting Scientific Consensus

Prediction markets are pricing a 5% chance of a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake occurring in 2026, well below what seismological history and theo...

20. 5. 2026, 11:22:24 · +0.0%

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Atlantic Off-Season Storm Formation Priced at 17% Probability Ahead of 2026 Season

Prediction markets assign a 17% chance that NOAA will name a tropical storm in the Atlantic basin between early December 2025 and May 31, 2026, before...

20. 5. 2026, 14:53:40 · +0.0%

Science

Retatrutide FDA Approval Prospects Remain Subdued at 23.5% Probability Through 2026

Prediction markets assign less than one-in-four odds to Eli Lilly's obesity and metabolic disease candidate retatrutide receiving FDA approval by end ...

20. 5. 2026, 01:10:54 · +0.0%

Science

US Category 4 Hurricane Landfall Odds at 35% Through 2026

20. 5. 2026, 08:21:08 · +0.0%

Science

Earthquake Market Prices Low Odds for 11-13 Magnitude 7.0+ Events in 2026

20. 5. 2026, 05:12:38 · +0.0%

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Volcanic Risk Markets Price Near Even Odds for VEI 4+ Eruption in 2026

19. 5. 2026, 20:08:25 · +0.0%

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xAI Given Minimal Odds to Lead AI Rankings by Mid-2026

19. 5. 2026, 15:06:25 · +0.0%

Science

Prediction Market Pricing 85% Odds of 8+ Magnitude-7.0 Earthquakes in Next Seven Months

19. 5. 2026, 08:33:55 · +0.0%

Science

2026 Fifth-Hottest Year Market Priced at 0.5%, Reflects Extremely High Baseline Temperatures

19. 5. 2026, 04:27:58 · +0.0%

Science

Doge-1 Lunar Mission Faces Long Odds for Pre-2027 Launch, Market Prices Risk at 11.6%

19. 5. 2026, 01:26:54 · +0.0%

Science

Moon Landing by End of 2026 Seen as Highly Unlikely; Market Prices Probability at 4.3%

18. 5. 2026, 21:55:37 · +0.0%

Science

Claude 5 Release by May 2026 Priced at Long Odds Despite AI Acceleration

19. 5. 2026, 12:05:16 · +0.0%

Science

xAI's Path to Top AI Model Ranks at 10.5% Probability Heading Into 2026

18. 5. 2026, 16:23:28 · +0.0%

Science

Magnitude 10.0 Earthquake Before 2027 Priced at 5% Probability

18. 5. 2026, 09:20:34 · +0.0%

Science

US Alien Confirmation Market Holds at 17.5% Odds Through 2026

18. 5. 2026, 06:19:27 · +0.0%

Science

Retatrutide FDA Approval Odds Remain Modest at 23.5% Through 2026

18. 5. 2026, 00:47:04 · +0.0%

Science

Z.ai Given Slim Odds of Topping AI Model Rankings by Mid-2026

18. 5. 2026, 19:24:35 · +0.0%

Science

Volcanic Risk Market Prices Slight Odds Favoring Zero Major Eruptions in 2026

17. 5. 2026, 19:44:14 · +0.0%

Science

Atlantic Storm Before Season: Market Prices Early 2026 Named Storm at 17%

18. 5. 2026, 12:51:50 · +0.0%

Science

xAI Given Minimal Odds to Top Chatbot Arena Rankings by Mid-2026

17. 5. 2026, 14:42:22 · +0.0%

Science

Earthquake Market Prices High Odds for 8+ Magnitude-7 Events by Mid-2026

17. 5. 2026, 08:09:20 · +0.0%

Science

2026 Fifth-Hottest Year Market Priced at 0.5%, Reflecting Extreme Temperature Scenario

17. 5. 2026, 04:06:58 · +0.0%

Science

Magnitude 7.0+ Earthquakes in 2026: Market Prices 24% Probability of 11-13 Global Events

18. 5. 2026, 04:48:36 · +0.0%

Science

Doge-1 Lunar Mission Faces Long Odds for 2027 Launch Window, Traders Price Skepticism at 11.6%

17. 5. 2026, 01:05:51 · +0.0%