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GPT-6 Release Odds Surge to 41.5% as Market Reassesses OpenAI Timeline

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GPT-6 Release Odds Surge to 41.5% as Market Reassesses OpenAI Timeline

Prediction market odds for GPT-6 public release by August 2026 jumped 23.5 percentage points to 41.5% on $119,000 in volume, signaling a material shif...

6. 8. 2026, 15:54:56 · +130.6%

2026 Temperature Forecast: Market Prices Extreme Skepticism at 0.5% for Fifth-Hottest Year

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2026 Temperature Forecast: Market Prices Extreme Skepticism at 0.5% for Fifth-Hottest Year

Prediction markets are assigning just 0.5% probability that 2026 will rank as the fifth-hottest year on record, reflecting the statistical rarity of s...

10. 8. 2026, 10:37:20 · +0.0%

Doge-1 Lunar Mission Faces Long Odds for 2026 Launch Window

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Doge-1 Lunar Mission Faces Long Odds for 2026 Launch Window

Prediction markets price the Doge-1 satellite launch at just 11.6% probability before end-2026, reflecting significant delays in SpaceX's lunar payloa...

10. 8. 2026, 07:35:53 · +0.0%

Moon Landing Odds for 2026 Priced at 4.3%, Well Below NASA's Artemis Timeline

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Moon Landing Odds for 2026 Priced at 4.3%, Well Below NASA's Artemis Timeline

10. 8. 2026, 04:34:29 · +0.0%

Retatrutide FDA Approval Odds at 23.5% Through 2026 as Eli Lilly Advances Obesity Drug Trials

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Retatrutide FDA Approval Odds at 23.5% Through 2026 as Eli Lilly Advances Obesity Drug Trials

10. 8. 2026, 01:32:55 · +0.0%

Prediction Market Sets 5% Odds on Magnitude 10.0+ Earthquake in 2026

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Prediction Market Sets 5% Odds on Magnitude 10.0+ Earthquake in 2026

9. 8. 2026, 22:31:40 · +0.0%

Odds Lean Toward Quiet Volcanism in 2026 as Market Prices VEI 4+ Eruptions at 46.5%

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Odds Lean Toward Quiet Volcanism in 2026 as Market Prices VEI 4+ Eruptions at 46.5%

9. 8. 2026, 11:25:35 · +0.0%

2026 Global Temperature: Market Prices Fifth-Hottest Year as Extremely Unlikely at 0.5%

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2026 Global Temperature: Market Prices Fifth-Hottest Year as Extremely Unlikely at 0.5%

8. 8. 2026, 10:12:16 · +0.0%

Doge-1 Lunar Mission Priced as Long Shot, With Only 11.6% Chance of Launch Before 2027

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Doge-1 Lunar Mission Priced as Long Shot, With Only 11.6% Chance of Launch Before 2027

8. 8. 2026, 07:10:54 · +0.0%

Moon Landing Odds for 2026 Remain Slim at 4.3% as NASA Artemis Timeline Slips Further

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Moon Landing Odds for 2026 Remain Slim at 4.3% as NASA Artemis Timeline Slips Further

8. 8. 2026, 04:09:09 · +0.0%

Retatrutide FDA Approval Odds Hold at 23.5% as Trials Progress Through 2026

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Retatrutide FDA Approval Odds Hold at 23.5% as Trials Progress Through 2026

8. 8. 2026, 01:07:55 · +0.0%

Magnitude 10.0 Earthquake Odds Set at 5% Through 2026, Far Below Geological Consensus

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Magnitude 10.0 Earthquake Odds Set at 5% Through 2026, Far Below Geological Consensus

7. 8. 2026, 22:06:41 · +0.0%

US Alien Confirmation Market Holds at 17.5% Odds Through 2026

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US Alien Confirmation Market Holds at 17.5% Odds Through 2026

7. 8. 2026, 13:01:14 · +0.0%

Volcanic Eruption Market Prices Zero Major Events in 2026 at Slight Majority Odds

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Volcanic Eruption Market Prices Zero Major Events in 2026 at Slight Majority Odds

7. 8. 2026, 11:00:04 · +0.0%

2026 Temperature Ranking Market Reflects Steep Odds Against Fifth-Hottest Year Finish

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2026 Temperature Ranking Market Reflects Steep Odds Against Fifth-Hottest Year Finish

6. 8. 2026, 09:46:15 · +0.0%

Doge-1 Lunar Mission Faces Long Odds for 2026 Launch, Trading at 11.6%

Science

Doge-1 Lunar Mission Faces Long Odds for 2026 Launch, Trading at 11.6%

6. 8. 2026, 06:44:55 · +0.0%

Moon Landing Odds for 2026 Remain Slim at 4.3% Despite NASA's Artemis Push

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Moon Landing Odds for 2026 Remain Slim at 4.3% Despite NASA's Artemis Push

6. 8. 2026, 03:43:35 · +0.0%

Retatrutide FDA Approval Odds Remain Low at 23.5% Through 2026

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Retatrutide FDA Approval Odds Remain Low at 23.5% Through 2026

6. 8. 2026, 00:42:04 · +0.0%

Magnitude 10.0 Earthquake Before 2027 Priced at 5% Probability, Well Below Historical Precedent

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Magnitude 10.0 Earthquake Before 2027 Priced at 5% Probability, Well Below Historical Precedent

5. 8. 2026, 21:40:13 · +0.0%

Alien Confirmation Odds Hold Steady at 17.5% as US Disclosure Debate Persists

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Alien Confirmation Odds Hold Steady at 17.5% as US Disclosure Debate Persists

5. 8. 2026, 12:34:48 · +0.0%

Volcanic Eruption Market Balanced on Historical Frequency: 53% Odds of No Major Eruptions in 2026

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Volcanic Eruption Market Balanced on Historical Frequency: 53% Odds of No Major Eruptions in 2026

5. 8. 2026, 10:33:31 · +0.0%

Prediction market prices Category 4 US hurricane landfall before 2027 at 35% odds

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Prediction market prices Category 4 US hurricane landfall before 2027 at 35% odds

9. 8. 2026, 01:20:35 · +0.0%

Magnitude 7.0+ Earthquakes in 2026: Market Prices 11-13 Events at Just 24%

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Magnitude 7.0+ Earthquakes in 2026: Market Prices 11-13 Events at Just 24%

8. 8. 2026, 20:48:12 · +0.0%

2026 Fifth-Hottest Year Market Trades at 0.5%, Reflecting Steep Climate Trend

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2026 Fifth-Hottest Year Market Trades at 0.5%, Reflecting Steep Climate Trend

4. 8. 2026, 09:20:22 · +0.0%