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Doge-1 Lunar Mission Faces Long Odds for Pre-2027 Launch, Markets Price at 11.6%

Science

Doge-1 Lunar Mission Faces Long Odds for Pre-2027 Launch, Markets Price at 11.6%

Prediction markets are pricing the Doge-1 lunar satellite at just 11.6% probability of launching before 2027, reflecting significant scheduling uncert...

4. 7. 2026, 18:11:30 · +0.0%

Moon Landing by End of 2026 Priced at 4% Odds Despite NASA Artemis Delays

Science

Moon Landing by End of 2026 Priced at 4% Odds Despite NASA Artemis Delays

Prediction markets are pricing a human moon landing in 2026 at just 4.3%, reflecting widespread skepticism about near-term lunar missions despite ongo...

4. 7. 2026, 15:10:18 · +0.0%

Retatrutide FDA Approval Seen as Unlikely This Year Despite Obesity Drug Momentum

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Retatrutide FDA Approval Seen as Unlikely This Year Despite Obesity Drug Momentum

Prediction markets are pricing Eli Lilly's retatrutide at just a 23.5% probability of FDA approval by end-2026, reflecting skepticism about the timeli...

4. 7. 2026, 09:37:47 · +0.0%

Magnitude 10.0 Earthquake Before 2027 Priced at 5% Probability in Prediction Market

Science

Magnitude 10.0 Earthquake Before 2027 Priced at 5% Probability in Prediction Market

4. 7. 2026, 06:36:42 · +0.0%

Volcanic Risk Assessment: Markets Give Even Odds to Zero Major Eruptions in 2026

Science

Volcanic Risk Assessment: Markets Give Even Odds to Zero Major Eruptions in 2026

3. 7. 2026, 19:31:09 · +0.0%

Prediction Market Prices 1-in-3 Odds of 5-Kiloton Meteor Strike in 2026

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Prediction Market Prices 1-in-3 Odds of 5-Kiloton Meteor Strike in 2026

4. 7. 2026, 12:39:23 · +0.0%

2026 Fifth-Hottest Year Market Priced at 0.5%, Reflecting Steep Odds Against Specific Ranking

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2026 Fifth-Hottest Year Market Priced at 0.5%, Reflecting Steep Odds Against Specific Ranking

2. 7. 2026, 20:50:43 · +0.0%

Doge-1 Lunar Mission Faces Long Odds for 2026 Launch, Trading at 11.6%

Science

Doge-1 Lunar Mission Faces Long Odds for 2026 Launch, Trading at 11.6%

2. 7. 2026, 17:49:32 · +0.0%

Category 4 Hurricane Landfall in US Priced at 35% Probability Through 2026

Science

Category 4 Hurricane Landfall in US Priced at 35% Probability Through 2026

3. 7. 2026, 08:57:22 · +0.0%

Moon landing by 2026 seen as remote prospect at 4.3%, far short of NASA timeline

Science

Moon landing by 2026 seen as remote prospect at 4.3%, far short of NASA timeline

2. 7. 2026, 14:17:54 · +0.0%

Magnitude 7.0+ Earthquakes in 2026: Market Prices 24% Odds for 11-13 Major Events

Science

Magnitude 7.0+ Earthquakes in 2026: Market Prices 24% Odds for 11-13 Major Events

3. 7. 2026, 04:24:49 · +0.0%

Retatrutide FDA Approval Unlikely Before 2027, Markets Price at 23.5%

Science

Retatrutide FDA Approval Unlikely Before 2027, Markets Price at 23.5%

2. 7. 2026, 09:16:19 · +0.0%

Magnitude 10.0 Earthquake by End-2026 Priced at 5% Probability

Science

Magnitude 10.0 Earthquake by End-2026 Priced at 5% Probability

2. 7. 2026, 06:15:06 · +0.0%

US Alien Confirmation Market Holds Steady at 17.5%, Reflecting Skepticism on Near-Term Disclosure

Science

US Alien Confirmation Market Holds Steady at 17.5%, Reflecting Skepticism on Near-Term Disclosure

2. 7. 2026, 01:43:09 · +0.0%

Natural Disaster Market Prices 27% Odds of Major Event in 2026

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Natural Disaster Market Prices 27% Odds of Major Event in 2026

3. 7. 2026, 14:59:24 · +0.0%

Volcanic Eruption Market Reflects Uncertainty Over Major 2026 Activity

Science

Volcanic Eruption Market Reflects Uncertainty Over Major 2026 Activity

1. 7. 2026, 18:39:40 · +0.0%

COVID Variant of Concern Unlikely Before 2027, Markets Price at 16.5%

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COVID Variant of Concern Unlikely Before 2027, Markets Price at 16.5%

3. 7. 2026, 11:58:22 · +0.0%

Market assigns minimal odds to 2026 ranking as fifth-hottest year on record

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Market assigns minimal odds to 2026 ranking as fifth-hottest year on record

30. 6. 2026, 20:30:15 · +0.0%

Doge-1 Lunar Mission Seen as Unlikely to Launch Before 2027, Markets Price in Delays

Science

Doge-1 Lunar Mission Seen as Unlikely to Launch Before 2027, Markets Price in Delays

30. 6. 2026, 17:29:06 · +0.0%

Pandemic Risk in 2026 Priced at 9%, Well Below Historical Base Rates

Science

Pandemic Risk in 2026 Priced at 9%, Well Below Historical Base Rates

3. 7. 2026, 00:22:31 · +0.0%

Moon Landing by 2026 Priced at Long Shot; NASA's Artemis II Delay Cited

Science

Moon Landing by 2026 Priced at Long Shot; NASA's Artemis II Delay Cited

30. 6. 2026, 13:57:33 · +0.0%

Retatrutide FDA approval odds hold at 23.5% through 2026, reflecting uncertain regulatory timeline

Science

Retatrutide FDA approval odds hold at 23.5% through 2026, reflecting uncertain regulatory timeline

30. 6. 2026, 08:55:51 · +0.0%

Magnitude 9.0 Earthquake Odds Remain Low at 7.5% Through 2026

Science

Magnitude 9.0 Earthquake Odds Remain Low at 7.5% Through 2026

4. 7. 2026, 02:34:48 · +0.0%

Magnitude 10.0 Earthquake Bet Prices at 5% Ahead of 2026 Window

Science

Magnitude 10.0 Earthquake Bet Prices at 5% Ahead of 2026 Window

30. 6. 2026, 05:54:37 · +0.0%