Market Overview
The Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly one-fifth of global oil passes daily—faces an uncertain recovery trajectory according to active prediction market participants. The current 45.5% probability assigned to the resolution of
Business
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Recovery Seen as Uncertain; Market Prices 45% Probability of Normalization by June
Prediction market traders are pricing in less-than-even odds that the critical Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor will return to normal traffic levels by end of June 2026, with a current probability of 45.5% reflecting lingering concerns about Middle East stability and geopolitical tensions.
Market Signal
Before 7. 5. 2026, 05:07:5345.5%
After 8. 5. 2026, 05:07:5345.5%
+0.0pp (↑+0.0%)
Price History
